2018 September Price Outlook for U.S. Commodities

The USDA has released its current price projections for U.S. commodities—a mixed bag of the good, the bad and the ugly, from tighter cotton supplies to larger soybean supplies. Figure 1 presents the 2017 crop year prices compared to the projected range for the 2018 crop. Cotton is a bright spot in the market and set to average a higher price than last year. World stocks-to-use is expected to be the lowest in eight years. Corn prices are projected to average about $0.10 more per bushel than last year. The U.S. average corn yields are estimated to be a record 178.4 bu/acre, although ending stocks are expected to be down nearly 17% compared to 2017. Sorghum prices are predicted to be up slightly from last year as sorghum generally follows corn prices. Due to tightening global supplies, wheat prices are expected to be better in 2018, largely because the E.U. will likely to have its smallest wheat crop since 2012. Long grain rice prices are expected to be lower than last year due primarily to lower export forecast. Soybean prices are down significantly from last year due to large crop supplies with a record 52.8 bushels per acre average and trade disputes with China.